Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-09 13.380180 16.349686 19.651786 23.571949 28.073987 33.057592 38.965622
2025-11-16 8.947189 12.702027 17.349534 23.418162 31.019479 40.109812 51.677007
2025-11-23 6.317574 10.187852 15.419502 22.778608 32.612936 45.042834 61.652716
2025-11-30 5.030984 9.036266 14.857309 23.540774 35.731613 51.783221 74.002504
2025-12-07 3.833277 7.684458 13.699139 23.190631 37.140946 56.203183 83.429576
2025-12-14 3.070737 6.817320 13.062630 23.415687 39.238551 61.538511 94.217428
2025-12-21 2.255627 5.634937 11.696644 22.298931 39.188281 63.768664 100.747452
2025-12-28 1.885456 5.185488 11.459586 22.895501 41.688826 69.696353 112.643133
2026-01-04 1.547477 4.705251 11.075415 23.171161 43.659238 74.893029 123.659766
2026-01-11 1.291105 4.329118 10.812850 23.599523 45.861358 80.495940 135.444936
2026-01-18 1.103734 4.060786 10.709774 24.279247 48.488016 86.829258 148.511208
2026-01-25 0.860437 3.563452 10.047971 23.841910 49.176042 90.148079 157.136916
2026-02-01 0.684082 3.202301 9.649202 23.929370 50.895744 95.378099 169.214439
2026-02-08 0.528203 2.834347 9.166761 23.800858 52.236636 100.092735 180.745139
2026-02-15 0.383911 2.421408 8.480670 23.154825 52.563887 103.128213 189.723496
2026-02-22 0.322930 2.289306 8.471480 23.926818 55.546773 110.684086 206.106140
2026-03-01 0.238838 2.000315 7.978044 23.572222 56.354752 114.578813 216.717991
2026-03-08 0.187690 1.825157 7.759080 23.800146 58.283730 120.450116 230.703733
2026-03-15 0.122045 1.499587 7.003913 22.669099 57.427821 121.413816 236.629993
2026-03-22 0.099335 1.412476 6.972587 23.273323 60.097517 128.685093 253.234670
2026-03-29 0.076732 1.297664 6.819621 23.552504 62.106036 134.837578 268.126216
2026-04-05 0.060285 1.208541 6.732497 23.986320 64.455868 141.681628 284.366098
2026-04-12 0.049063 1.150138 6.742884 24.674653 67.379887 149.666770 302.752084